Chart of the Day
The CFTC Commitment of Traders report showed non-commercial traders decreased their net short position in the USD last week, and are now net neutral on the currency.
Rewinding to Friday, the US labor market added 916,000 jobs in March. On a sector basis, moves ranged from a fall of 2,000 jobs in Information to a rise of 280,000 jobs in Leisure & Hospitality.
The data yesterday confirmed that a weighted-average of the ISM surveys rose to 68.5 in March. Here's the somewhat loose relationship between the surveys and GDP growth:
A weighted average of the ISM employment indices is currently 57.7, which points to annual gains in employment of around 4 million.
An average of the ISM prices paid indices rose slightly in March.
WTI fell sharply yesterday, to $58.7. Over the past week, it is down by 4.7%, about the same as yesterday’s move. So no clear direction just yet, but testing the barrier of its recent trading range.
Despite the drop in oil, it was a strong day for the most cyclical advanced economy currencies yesterday. Over the past month, they have put in a mixed performance.
The cyclical currencies seemed to take their cue from the equity market. Equities rose strongly, with the S&P 500 up by 1.4% and the Nasdaq rising by 1.7%.
That was despite real rates rising slightly.
There were some large moves in the EV market yesteday. Some positive news from Tesla resulted in a big gain, but the other major ones dropped back.
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