US growth still outperforming

Early PMIs strengthened in most areas

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The April composite PMI in the US rose to 62.2, a record (the history of the PMI is relatively short, since 2010). The PMI for the eurozone increased to 53.7 and the PMI for the UK rose to 60. That means the US is apparently still outperforming, even though growth there has already been much strong so far this year.


Here's the long-run relationship between the US PMI survey and GDP growth:

US new home sales rose to 1,021,000 annualized in March, a post GFC high.


Traders have slightly reduced their positioning across cyclical trades in the past four weeks.

A selection of assets that typify risk-on trades has been little changed this past week, much like an alternative selection that typify risk-off trades, as the market struggles for any real direction.

Non-commercial traders increased their net short position in the USD last week, the opposite move to which we’ve seen in previous weeks.

Non-commercial traders raised their net position in copper last week. At +25% of open interest, that net position is above the 5-year average of +7% of OI.

Although the equity markets generally rebounded on Thursday and Friday, most declined over the week. The Japanese Nikkei was one of the worst global performers.

Of the S&P 500 sectors, in the past week energy has performed worst and healthcare best.

That reflects the relative weakness of energy prices, whereas most commodities did well.

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