US house price inflation at 11%

Highest since financial crisis

Chart of the Day

US house price inflation accelerated to 11.2% in January. Over the past three months, annualized house price growth has been a stronger 17.0%, which is often a sign the annual rate will rise even further. Demand has been boosted by lower mortgage rates and the improvement in the labor market in recent months. It remains to be seen whether such high house price inflation will trouble the Fed, though.

Macro

The eurozone ESI rose in March and now looks consistent with positive GDP growth.

The US Conference Board measure of consumer confidence jumped in March. Consumers' expectations and assessment of the present situation both improved.

In the UK, the flow of household consumer credit and mortgage credit rose in February, but there is still a huge difference between them, with mortgage lending surging.

In China, the official manufacturing PMI rose to 51.9 in March, while the services PMI increased to 56.3, suggesting the economy is healing from the recent mini-lockdowns.

Markets

Most EM currencies fell against the USD yesterday. Moves in the past week have ranged from a big 4.6% fall for the TRY to a 0.6% increase for the RUB.

Gold prices weakened again - they have fallen by 2.6% in the past month, in part because the real 10-year yield has risen by 10bp.

The lower gold price has boosted the copper/gold ratio, which would normally be consistent with a higher 10-year bond yield.

Over the past week, value stocks have risen by 2.6% while growth stocks have been little changed.

Amid the ongoing rotation trade within US sectors, the European indices have also outperformed the S&P 500 over the past month - they tend to have a greater share of value-like stocks and less big tech firms.

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